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Weekly Insights & Strategic Blogs

Overvaluation, systemic solvency problems, and structural inflation foreshadows both secular stagflation and a near-term recession.

Overvaluation, systemic solvency problems, and structural inflation foreshadows both secular stagflation and a near-term recession.

Clearly weak earnings from technology stocks and discretionary retailers have led to a record poor ratio between stock advances relative to declines. Nevertheless, a handful of mega cap technology stocks have still managed to generate further rises in big cap weighted indexes. A range of longer term challenges remains, not least the rising probability of recession.

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Confused And Failing Policy Has Led To An Unprecedented Investment Predicament

Confused And Failing Policy Has Led To An Unprecedented Investment Predicament

t is the cumulative effect of flawed policies that has brought us to the current predicament.

The Fed has broken out beyond its mandate, and has been rushing into unprecedented and extreme policy action in recent years. Examination of Fed’s policies show just how adrift the Fed has become.

Instability is likely to continue. Investors need to understand the dynamics of the situation to be prepared as events unfold.

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Narratives, Distortions, and Reality

Narratives, Distortions, and Reality

After the Fed’s liquidity injections and the stock market rally of recent weeks the emerging narrative is that the banking crisis is not the concern it was. Then again, what if the credit cycle has only just started to turn down, while the Fed has begun to reduce liquidity again and intends to raise rates further? What signal is the weakest stock market breadth on record sending us?

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Next Shoes To Drop. Credit Crunch Then Growth Speed Limit.

Next Shoes To Drop. Credit Crunch Then Growth Speed Limit.

With the regional bank ETF trading at its 52 week lows, it is clear that the banking crisis is far from over, and this is also the view of Jamie Dimon. This is a major problem for the broader economy as the chart below shows that the S&P 500 Index generally performs poorly when banks are trading poorly. In the current banking crisis there are more shoes to drop.

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Bank Deposit? Or Treasury Bills?

Bank Deposit? Or Treasury Bills?

On Wednesday afternoon, March 22, Fed chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen decided to continue business as usual. Powell raised interest rates to contain inflation, perhaps for the last time in this cycle, while Yellen announced she is not considering blanket bank deposit insurance. Is the banking crisis over? Or have they run out of options and new ideas?

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